The story illustrates the folly of looking to the past in order to predict the future.
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says, results in a distortion bias, “the difference between what you see and what is there
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narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them
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round-trip fallacy, the human tendency to conflate two similar-sounding statements that are in fact convey very different information.
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Taleb encourages readers to maximize their exposure to potential positive Black Swans by putting themselves in situations (like social gatherings) that have the potential to produce fortuitous encounters. And
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barbell strategy advocates for, “taking maximum exposure to the positive Black Swans
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taking maximum exposure to the positive Black Swans while remaining paranoid about the negative ones
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“[k]now how to rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but to the harm they may cause
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his vision of utopia as an epistemocracy, “[A] society governed from the basis of awareness of ignorance, not knowledge
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In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few.