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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Fooled by Randomness

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    jurnal369compartió una citahace 4 meses
    After all, this business of journalism is about pure entertainment, not a search for truth, particularly when it comes to radio and television. The trick is to stay away from those who do not seem to know that they are just entertainers (like George Will, who will appear in Chapter 2) and actually believe that they are thinkers.
    anastasiia kicompartió una citahace 5 meses
    to stick one’s neck out for a given belief
    anastasiia kicompartió una citahace 5 meses
    we underestimate the share of randomness in about everything
    anastasiia kicompartió una citahace 5 meses
    are paid to read too much into things.
    anastasiia kicompartió una citahace 5 meses
    the right time and the right plac
    anastasiia kicompartió una citahace 5 meses
    The formation of our beliefs is fraught with superstitions—even today
    anastasiia kicompartió una citahace 5 meses
    Such confusion crops up in the most unexpected areas, even science
    anastasiia kicompartió una citahace 5 meses
    luck disguised and perceived as nonluck
    anastasiia kicompartió una citahace 5 meses
    quote that did not naturally spring from my memory
    anastasiia kicompartió una citahace 5 meses
    comes straight from the gut
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 5 meses
    round-trip fallacy”: It is a mistake to use, as journalists and some economists do, statistics without logic, but the reverse does not hold: It is not a mistake to use logic without statistics). If I write that I doubt that my neighbor’s success is devoid of some measure, small or large, of luck, owing to the randomness in his profession, I do not need to “test” it—the Russian roulette thought experiment suffices.
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 5 meses
    That all millionaires were persistent, hardworking people does not make persistent hard workers become millionaires: Plenty of unsuccessful entrepreneurs were persistent, hardworking people.
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 5 meses
    the fact that every intelligent, hardworking, persevering person becomes successful does not imply that every successful person is necessarily an intelligent, hardworking, persevering person (it is remarkable how such a primitive logical fallacy—affirming the consequent—can be made by otherwise very intelligent people, a point I discuss in this edition as the “two systems of reasoning” problem).
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 5 meses
    a matter of fact, I spent all my career attacking the quantitative use of probability. While Chapters13 and 14 (dealing with skepticism and stoicism) are to me the central ideas of the book
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 5 meses
    Furthermore, as most successes are caused by very few “windows of opportunity,” failing to grab one can be deadly for one’s career. Take your luck!
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 5 meses
    Scientists investigated half a century ago the phenomena of “experts” not learning about their past failings. You can mispredict everything for all your life yet think that you will get it right next time.)
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 5 meses
    How? Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 8 meses
    Aut tace aut loquere meliora silencio (only when the words outperform silence).
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 8 meses
    am not capable of avoiding being the fool of randomness; what I can do is confine it to where it brings some aesthetic gratification.
    jurnal369compartió una citahace 8 meses
    This book is the synthesis of, on one hand, the no-nonsense practitioner of uncertainty whospen this professional life trying to resist being fooled by randomness and trick the emotions associated with probabilistic outcomes and, on the other
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